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☆ The Fed could make a big change today. We’re not talking about interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

New York CNN —Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy decision will likely be pretty boring for investors — officials are widely expected to keep interest rates the same, just as they have since July 2023. They think that the Fed may curtail its quantitative tightening (QT) program — that’s the selling off of its assets to decrease money supply and increase interest rates — by as much as half. Those purchases ended up pushing down interest rates in certain parts of the economy, like housing and auto sales. That led to a “repo crisis”, where the interest rates for overnight loans between banks spiked unusually high. That’s because a taper should send bond prices higher, and interest rates lower.

Persons: there’s, Jamie Dimon, Jerome Powell doesn’t, Krishna Guha, Marco Casiraghi, ”, Bill Adams, Biden, reclassify, General Merrick Garland, Xochitl Hinojosa, “, Nancy Mace, Earl Blumenauer, ” Read, Zhao, Allison Morrow, ” Binance Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Fed, JPMorgan Chase, Comerica Bank, Bank of America, CNN, US Department of Justice, Federal Register, Congress, Associated Press, Republican, CZ, Binance, Bloomberg Locations: New York, South Carolina, Oregon, Seattle

☆ Things went the wrong way for the Fed in the first quarter, says Evercore ISI's Krishna Guha
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThings went the wrong way for the Fed in the first quarter, says Evercore ISI's Krishna GuhaKrishna Guha, Evercore ISI vice chairman, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's inflation fight, interest rate outlook, news of Trump allies drafting plans to erode the Fed's independence if he wins the 2024 election, and more.

Persons: Evercore ISI's Krishna Guha Krishna Guha, Evercore Organizations: Fed, Trump

☆ We know the March PCE isn't going to be good enough for rate cuts, says Krishna Guha
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe know the March PCE isn't going to be good enough for rate cuts, says Krishna GuhaKrishna Guha, Evercore ISI Vice Chairman, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk recent market action, what's next for the Fed, and more.

Persons: PCE isn't, Krishna Guha Krishna Guha, Evercore, what's Organizations: PCE, Fed

☆ Dow futures rebound from worst week of 2024 even as traders brace for Israel response to Iran attack: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-14 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

S&P 500 futures added 0.2% and Nasdaq-100 futures advanced 0.3%. The losses caused the Dow to shed 2.4% last week for its worst week since March 2023 and its second down week in a row. The S&P 500 slid 1.5% for its worst week since October 2023. Iran launched drones and missiles on Israel on Saturday night, marking the first direct attack on Israel from Iranian territory. Guha added that the a key question remaining is how Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will respond to the attack.

Persons: Dow, Krishna Guha, Evercore, Guha, Benjamin Netanyahu, Biden, Netanyahu, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Iran's, Dow, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Global Policy, Central Bank Strategy, Israel, T, Treasury, JPMorgan Locations: Israel, Iran

☆ Evercore ISI's Krishna Guha: Not clear if the Fed has a good plan B
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEvercore ISI's Krishna Guha: Not clear if the Fed has a good plan BKrishna Guha, Evercore ISI vice chairman, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss how problematic the recent CPI report is for the Federal Reserve, what the plan B is for the Federal Reserve, and more.

Persons: Krishna Guha, Evercore Organizations: Federal Reserve

☆ June and three rate cuts is still the right base case, says Evercore ISI's Krishna Guha
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJune and three rate cuts is still the right base case, says Evercore ISI's Krishna GuhaKrishna Guha, Evercore ISI vice chairman, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, the Fed's interest rate outlook, state of the economy, and more.

Persons: Evercore ISI's Krishna Guha Krishna Guha, Evercore

☆ The Fed is getting closer to ending the second part of its policy tightening
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-22 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

While most of the market's attention has been on interest rates, the Federal Reserve is quietly getting ready to loosen policy in another respect as it prepares to slow down the shedding of assets on its balance sheet. Tapering down the roll-off could see the Fed reducing the caps in half, according to a projection from BNP Paribas. The QT program has resulted in a nearly $1.3 trillion reduction in total holdings, with the total balance sheet now standing at about $7.7 trillion. With confidence growing that inflation is easing, policymakers are looking to loosen up policy, albeit at a measured pace. So at this meeting, we did have some discussion of the balance sheet, and we're planning to begin in-depth discussions of balance sheet issues at our next meeting in March," Chair Jerome Powell said in his January post-meeting news conference .

Persons: Krishna Guha, Goldman Sachs, We're, Jerome Powell, we're Organizations: Federal Reserve, Evercore ISI, Fed, MBS, New York Fed, BNP Paribas, BNP

☆ Stubborn inflation means the Fed will be cutting rates less than the market thought
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-13 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

If nothing else, the January inflation report released Tuesday finally appears to have convinced markets that Federal Reserve officials weren't kidding around when they said they will take a deliberate approach to cutting interest rates this year. Following the consumer price index report showing the year-over-year reading well ahead of the Fed's desired inflation goal, markets recalibrated their monetary policy expectations. The Fed "faces a challenging task in balancing economic growth and employment while trying to control inflation," he added. Indeed, the narrative of the Fed being able to start cutting early, and moving rapidly through the year, was all but dead Tuesday. The January CPI report is a "setback for the Fed and makes a May rate cut unlikely.

Persons: Ditto, —, it's, Sung Won Sohn, Dow, Jerome Powell, Jason Pride, there's, Powell, Matthew Ryan, Krishna Guha, Guha Organizations: Federal Reserve, CME, Labor, CPI, Loyola Marymount University, SS Economics, Dow Jones, US2Y, CBS, Bank of America, Citigroup, Fed, Evercore ISI

☆ 'May is looking pretty good' for the start of rate cuts, says Evercore ISI's Krishna Guha
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'May is looking pretty good' for the start of rate cuts, says Evercore ISI's Krishna GuhaKrishna Guha, Evercore ISI Vice Chairman, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the Federal Reserve's decision to leave rates unchanged.

Persons: Evercore ISI's Krishna Guha Krishna Guha, Evercore

In December, the policymakers collectively forecast that they would cut their rate three times this year. The Fed prefers for inflation to be about 2%, which it sees as having little negative effect on the economy. Fed officials, he added, will want to see further evidence that inflation is still on track to 2% before embarking on rate cuts. Before Waller spoke, Wall Street investors had placed a 72% likelihood of a rate cut in March, based on futures prices. Waller's comments followed similarly optimistic remarks from John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, last week.

Persons: Christopher Waller, ”, ” Waller, Waller, Krishna Guha, Waller's, ” Guha, John Williams, Williams, Powell's, ” Williams Organizations: WASHINGTON, Federal, Fed's, of Governors, Fed, Wall Street, Brookings Institution, “, Federal Reserve Bank of New Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

☆ Inflation is still a mixed bag, but markets don't care. They see big Fed rate cuts ahead
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-15 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

December's inflation data provided just enough evidence to show that the pace of price increases is continuing to cool while also serving up a reminder that the war isn't won yet. One is that regardless of the headline numbers, the parts of inflation that don't fluctuate as much have been fairly stubborn. So-called sticky inflation, which includes things such as housing costs, auto insurance, medical care services and household furnishings, are indeed holding higher. On a one-month annualized basis, the measure also was at 4.6%, but that's up a full percentage point from the previous month. Fed policymakers also are attuned to the relationship between wages and inflation.

Persons: isn't, Disinflation, Jamie Dimon, cautioning, Krishna Guha, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Ian Shepherdson, Dan North Organizations: Separate Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Nomura Global Economics, JPMorgan Chase, Evercore ISI, PPI, Citigroup, Commerce, Fed, Pantheon, Atlanta, Allianz Trade Locations: Red

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Maya McGuineas and Krishna Guha
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Maya McGuineas and Krishna GuhaMaya MacGuineas, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget president, and Krishna Guha, Evercore ISI head of global policy, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the looming government shutdown deadline, increasing U.S. debt, and more.

Persons: Maya McGuineas, Krishna Guha Maya MacGuineas, Krishna Guha, Evercore Organizations: Federal

☆ U.S. recession where interest rates rise is unlikely, says Evercore's Krishna Guha
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailU.S. recession where interest rates rise is unlikely, says Evercore's Krishna GuhaMaya MacGuineas, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget president, and Krishna Guha, Evercore ISI head of global policy, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the looming government shutdown deadline, increasing U.S. debt, and more.

Persons: Evercore's Krishna Guha Maya MacGuineas, Krishna Guha, Evercore Organizations: U.S, Federal

☆ Politicians falling short in problem-solving: CRFB's Maya McGuineas
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPoliticians falling short in problem-solving: CRFB's Maya McGuineasMaya McGuineas, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, and Krishna Guha, Evercore ISI, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the looming government shutdown deadline, increasing U.S. debt, and more.

Persons: McGuineas, Krishna Guha Organizations: Federal Budget, Evercore ISI

☆ Fed's Powell to take the stage amid a suddenly choppy landscape
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell holds a press conference after the release of the Fed policy decision to leave interest rates unchanged, at the Federal Reserve in Washington, U.S, September 20, 2023. Powell's appearance comes less than 48 hours before the beginning of the traditional quiet period ahead of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee's meeting on Oct. 31-Nov. 1. Many in the poll offered the caveat that if progress on inflation stalls out or reverses, the Fed would not hesitate to resume raising rates. Waller said as much on Wednesday: "If the real economy continues showing underlying strength and inflation appears to stabilize or reaccelerate, more policy tightening is likely needed despite the recent run-up in longer-term rates." Reporting by Dan Burns and Ann Saphir; Editing by Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Evelyn Hockstein, Powell, Philip, Jefferson, Krishna Guha, Christopher Waller, Waller, Dan Burns, Ann Saphir, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal, Federal Reserve, REUTERS, U.S, Economic, of New, Fed, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, New York, of New York, U.S

Describing that anticipated outcome while keeping open the possibility of future rate increases will be one challenge Powell faces. Another will be discounting speculation about the prospect of rate cuts or changes to other aspects of Fed policy, such as the ongoing reduction of the central bank's balance sheet. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is just about six-tenths of a percentage point below the Fed's policy rate; when the gap between the two shifts from negative to positive is when monetary policy gets perhaps its truest test. Recent data on balance don't fully back the Fed's view of a gently slowing economy and steadily easing inflation. "Assuming the economy keeps growing ... the Fed will get back to hiking," Blitz said.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Larry Meyer, Meyer, Krishna Guha, Powell's, Christopher Waller, Waller, Steven Blitz, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, U.S ., Economic, of New, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Evercore ISI, Hamas, U.S . House, Graphics, TS Lombard, Thomson Locations: U.S . Congress, of New York, Israel, Palestinian, Washington, U.S

"If long-term interest rates remain elevated because of higher term premiums, there may be less need to raise the fed funds rate," Logan said. The Dallas Fed president said the economy has been stronger than she had expected, as has been the labor market, and that inflation was still too high despite progress in lowering it. But because Logan ran the New York Fed's bond portfolio for years before she took the top job at the Dallas Fed, her views on what's driving long-term rates higher could carry considerable weight as policymakers weigh their next moves. "The expectation of lower Federal Reserve asset holdings over time implies that other investors will need to hold more long-duration securities, which appears to be one factor among the many contributing to higher term premiums," Logan said. Figuring out how much of the higher long-term rates is due to higher term premiums is complex, she added.

Persons: Lorie Logan, Ann Saphir, Logan, Mary Daly, Julia Coronado, Lorie, she's, Krishna Guha, Guha, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank, Dallas, Kansas City, REUTERS, Rights, Treasury, Federal Reserve, National Association for Business Economics, Market, San Francisco Fed, Evercore ISI, Dallas Fed, Fed, Thomson Locations: Kansas, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, York

☆ Global central banks unite in "higher for longer" credo
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Mark John | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The so-called "higher for longer" mantra is now the official stance of the U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and the Bank of England, as well as being echoed by monetary policy-makers from Oslo to Tapei. U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers had a similar message on Wednesday. Turkey's central bank confirmed its hawkish turn while in Asia, Taiwan's central bank flagged continued tight policy. Reuters Graphics"TIPPING POINT"Belgian central bank chief and ECB board member Pierre Wunsch - an early voice urging tougher central bank action to counter inflation from end-2021 - said on Thursday that monetary policy was now at the right level. That said, the prospect that global interest rates are pretty close to peak will be of huge relief to emerging economies suffering from heavy debt servicing loads.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Kazuo Ueda, Ann, BoE, Andrew Bailey, Pierre Wunsch, Wunsch, COVID lockdowns, Jerome, Powell, Krishna Guha, Howard Schneider, Balazs Koranyi, Catherine Evans Organizations: European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Kansas City Federal, REUTERS, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of England, U.S . Federal, Swiss National Bank, South African Reserve Bank, People's Bank of, Reuters, ECB, Reuters Global Markets, Economics, Sterling, Swiss, United, Thomson Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, Central, Oslo, Tapei, Europe, Norway, Sweden, Asia, People's Bank of China, Belgian, United States, Ukraine, Washington, Frankfurt, London, Stockholm, Zurich, Ankara

☆ What higher-for-longer Fed policy will mean for the markets and economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

For Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who spoke to the press after the two-day session ended, "Resetting market expectations about real rates was his most important mission," Colas said. But this week's meeting indicated that Fed officials expect rates to stay higher for longer. The thinking there is that if inflation moves lower, the Fed won't need to keep nominal rates as high because real rates will be rising. "But, until one or both of those things happen, higher real rates are the Fed's strategy to tame inflation," Colas said. "This tells us that current equity market churn is unlikely to end until bond markets have settled out."

Persons: wasn't, Nicholas Colas, Jerome Powell, Colas, Krishna Guha, Claudia Sahm, Guha, Powell, Powell's, Morgan Stanley, Ellen Zentner, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, David Mericle, Goldman doesn't, Mericle, DataTrek's Colas Organizations: DataTrek Research, Companies, Evercore ISI, U.S ., Fed

☆ Fed's higher for longer decision is due to unemployment data, not inflation: Fmr. CEA Chair Furman
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed's higher for longer decision is due to unemployment data, not inflation: Fmr. CEA Chair FurmanJason Furman, Former Council of Economic Advisers Chair and Krishna Guha, Evercore ISI Vice Chairman, join 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the Fed's decision to leave interest rates unchanged this month.

Persons: Furman Jason Furman, Krishna Guha, Evercore Organizations: CEA, Furman, of Economic

☆ Powell's tone was hawkish but his comments were very moderate, says Evercore ISI's Krishna Guha
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPowell's tone was hawkish but his comments were very moderate, says Evercore ISI's Krishna GuhaKrishna Guha, Evercore ISI head of global policy, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' with reaction to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments at Jackson Hole.

Persons: Evercore ISI's Krishna Guha Krishna Guha, Evercore, Jerome Powell's, Jackson

☆ The Fed could be very close to achieving one of its main policy goals
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

If the Federal Reserve's main policy goal these days is to tighten financial conditions, then it should be pretty close to achieving its goals, according to an Evercore ISI analysis. In fact, the Fed recently set up its own measure — the Financial Conditions Impulse on Growth , or FCI-G. "The Fed will have to consider the tightening in financial conditions when setting rates in coming months, including the decision whether to hike in September." "Our base is that the Fed will not raise rates further and developments in financial variables reinforce our call." Market pricing is largely in line with the call that the Fed halts its hiking cycle after raising rates 11 times since March 2022.

Persons: Evervore, Krishna Guha, Guha, Marco Casiraghi Organizations: Federal, U.S ., Fed, FCI, Evercore ISI, Treasury, Traders, Group, Citi, Cleveland

A trader works, as a screen displays a news conference by Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell following the Fed rate announcement, on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 26, 2023. The Fed watches an array of asset prices in its monitoring of the economy, including stocks, home prices, and corporate bonds. Reuters GraphicsAs of the Fed's July meeting, most Fed officials said they thought rates would need to increase more, with key measures of inflation still more than double the Fed's 2% target. Normally, Fed officials would be expected to see that sort of economic strength as a reason inflation might stay high and require further rate increases. "It may take sustained higher 10-year yields to slow the economy and the housing sector in particular to re-attain 2% target inflation," wrote economists from Citi.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Krishna Guha, Guha, Howard Schneider, Deepa Babington Organizations: Federal Reserve, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Rights, Treasury, U.S . Federal Reserve, Stock, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Fed, New York Fed, Citi, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

[1/2] European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde speaks to the media following the Governing Council's monetary policy meeting at ECB headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, July 27, 2023. The Bank of England is expected to raise rates again next week following similar positive inflation news. Meanwhile on Friday, the Bank of Japan opened the debate on plans to bring its ultra-loose policies to an end. The Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate now stands in the 5.25%-5.50% range, while the ECB's main rate is 3.75%. While bond markets took a cue from the faster growth, and pushed yields on Treasuries higher, the days of coordinated global tightening may be numbered.

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Kai Pfaffenbach, Jerome Powell, Powell, Lagarde, Krishna Guha, Howard Schneider, Francesco Canepa, Balazs Koranyi, Leika, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, REUTERS, WASHINGTON, U.S . Federal Reserve, The Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Reuters, U.S, Graphics, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, FRANKFURT, TOKYO, Europe, United States, Graphics New, Tokyo

☆ It's important the Fed signals it has a high bar for cutting rates, says Harvard's Jason Furman
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIt's important the Fed signals it has a high bar for cutting rates, says Harvard's Jason FurmanJason Furman, Fmr. Council of Economic Advisers Chairman and Krishna Guha, Evercore ISI Vice Chairman, join 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the Federal Reserve's decision to raise rates another 25 basis points.

Persons: Harvard's Jason Furman Jason Furman, Krishna Guha, Evercore Organizations: Fmr, Economic

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